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Markets are settling into holiday mode, with stock futures slightly down on the last full trading day before Christmas. Here’s where things stand today: * Nasdaq-100: +0.37% * S&P 500: +0.04% (flat) * Dow Jones: -0.22% On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, recovering
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Government surveys that track the economy are failing. Budgets are shrinking, people are skipping surveys, and economic data we rely on is becoming less trustworthy. This is a big deal—because when the numbers are wrong, decisions that affect markets, businesses, and everyday life go wrong, too. Here’s what’
The S&P 500 Value Index just dropped 3.7%, marking its longest losing streak on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin smashed past the $100,000 mark, and the Nasdaq climbed to 20,000. To me, it seems that value stocks have been left in the dust, and investors chasing bigger
Almost $10 billion has poured into Bitcoin ETFs since the US election, pushing Bitcoin past the $100,000 mark for the first time. The momentum is crazy, with Bitcoin posting its best winning streak since 2021. With investors pouring in, knowing the risks are more important than ever. Bitcoin’s
It's no secret that our job market looks far different than it did a few years ago. Since the Federal Reserve first raised interest rates in March 2022, the cost of borrowing has risen dramatically, slowing our economy significantly.
Today, we’re seeing signs of a weaker job market, and these three charts will explain how this moment looks—and what it means for you:
Payrolls are a key indicator of the health of the job market. They represent the total number of paid workers in the US each month, giving a snapshot of whether businesses are hiring or laying off employees. A healthy economy typically sees steady payroll growth, but this time it's different.
Just yesterday, US nonfarm payrolls missed estimates, coming in at 142k vs 164k expected. That also means over the past year, payrolls have only grown by 1.5%, well below our historical average of 2%.
Another indicator of economy is job openings. When businesses feel optimistic, they hire more, and job openings increase. When they’re feeling a pinch, hiring slows (or even freezes) altogether. Right now, openings are on a downward slide.
According to the latest data, US nonfarm job openings dropped to 7.7 million—below the 8.1 million expected. This is a clear sign that businesses are tightening their belts as the economic outlook becomes increasingly uncertain. The steady decline in job openings, which has been happening since early 2021, shows the reality of a cooling post-pandemic economy
This data also points to a big problem for anyone currently looking for work: fewer opportunities are available, and competition is fiercer than ever.
The final nail in the coffin? The ADP Nonfarm Private Employment report, which gives us a monthly estimate of how many private-sector jobs are added or lost. In September, we saw a massive miss: only 99k jobs were added, far below the previous months' numbers.
Job growth has been erratic at best over the past year, but September numbers are particularly concerning:
With such sluggish growth, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes are finally making themselves felt in the labor market.
Here’s the deal: it’s not looking good. With payroll growth slowing, job openings dropping, and employment change numbers way off the mark, it’s clear that the job market is weakening. If you’re job hunting, the process could take longer, and more competiton could roll in.
For businesses, this means tightening budgets and being more cautious with hiring decisions. And if we do slide into a recession, the job market is only going to get worse. What do you think?