Economy
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Markets are settling into holiday mode, with stock futures slightly down on the last full trading day before Christmas. Here’s where things stand today: * Nasdaq-100: +0.37% * S&P 500: +0.04% (flat) * Dow Jones: -0.22% On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, recovering
Quantum computing stocks are taking off in 2024. Is this the start of something big? Let’s take a closer look Google’s Chip Changes the Game Google’s new Willow chip, a 105-qubit processor, hit a big milestone: * Fixed Errors: It solved a 30-year problem by cutting down error
Government surveys that track the economy are failing. Budgets are shrinking, people are skipping surveys, and economic data we rely on is becoming less trustworthy. This is a big deal—because when the numbers are wrong, decisions that affect markets, businesses, and everyday life go wrong, too. Here’s what’
The S&P 500 Value Index just dropped 3.7%, marking its longest losing streak on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin smashed past the $100,000 mark, and the Nasdaq climbed to 20,000. To me, it seems that value stocks have been left in the dust, and investors chasing bigger
Almost $10 billion has poured into Bitcoin ETFs since the US election, pushing Bitcoin past the $100,000 mark for the first time. The momentum is crazy, with Bitcoin posting its best winning streak since 2021. With investors pouring in, knowing the risks are more important than ever. Bitcoin’s
Goldman Sachs changed its mind (again) on the likelihood of a U.S. recession. After initially raising the odds to 25% earlier this month, they’ve now lowered it back down to 20%. What's going on?
It all started with our July jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 114,000 vs 185,000 expected. This weak number sparked a massive global selloff and led Goldman to hike their recession odds from 15% to 25%.
The 'Sahm Rule'—a recession indicator triggered when the three-month average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.5%—was a key factor behind this shift in sentiment.
Immediately after, some other new data brought relief. Retail sales for July were up by 1% (beating expectations) and weekly jobless claims were lower than expected.
This strength in the data made Goldman to dial back our recession odds to 20%.
What should we expect next? If the next jobs report on September 6th shows stronger numbers, Goldman might lower the recession odds even further, possibly back to 15%. Right now, they’re betting on a modest 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, rather than the more aggressive 50bp cut some expected.
The markets seem to agree, with the chances of a larger cut dwindling to just 28.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Goldman’s shifting predictions goes to show how uncertain we are in today’s environment. Data can change quickly, and so can the outlook.