Is Value Investing Set for a Comeback?

Value investing has had a rough year in 2024. It’s been largely overshadowed by the dominance of tech-heavy growth stocks, particularly the ‘Magnificent Seven’—those big-name tech giants that everyone’s talking about.

But here’s the thing: market trends go in cycles. So, is value investing really down and out, or is it gearing up for a comeback?

Value investing has definitely lost some popularity lately. Right now, all the attention is on growth stocks, especially with all the hype around AI and tech. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ are leading the charge, even though they’re starting to wobble a bit.

Steve Sedgwick from CNBC made a great point recently when he compared value investing to Muhammad Ali. If you’re not familiar, Ali would lean back on the ropes, taking punches, waiting for the right moment to strike back. In a way, that’s what value investors are doing—taking the hits from a growth-dominated market.

As a life-long value investor, you feel like you’re fighting an uphill battle against a growth-dominated bull market. The big question is whether this patience will pay off as the market shifts.

Value stocks are dirt cheap. Right now, value stocks are a cheap compared to growth stocks. To give you an idea, growth stocks have outperformed value in the last decade. There's a gap, and value stocks are in the backburner. The S&P Value ETF ($IVE) grew 64% in the last 5 years vs 104% for S&P's Growth ETF ($IVW).

Inflation could be a game changer. Historically, value stocks tend to do well when inflation is on the rise. And with inflation likely to average 3-4% in the coming years—higher than the central banks’ 2% target—value stocks might benefit.

Higher inflation usually means higher interest rates, which makes those long-term growth stocks less attractive and more costly to hold. In this kind of environment, investors often turn to value stocks for their stability, which could set the stage for a comeback.

For value investing, instead of just focusing on market capitalization, you might want to look at the fundamental economic metrics of companies—things like sales, book value, cash flow, and dividends.

This approach aligns portfolios more with the broader economy than just the stock market. One strategy that’s worked well is the FTSE-RAFI All-World index, which has outpaced traditional value indices in 15 of the past 17 years.

Do you think value investing set for a comeback?

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