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Government surveys that track the economy are failing. Budgets are shrinking, people are skipping surveys, and economic data we rely on is becoming less trustworthy. This is a big deal—because when the numbers are wrong, decisions that affect markets, businesses, and everyday life go wrong, too. Here’s what’
The S&P 500 Value Index just dropped 3.7%, marking its longest losing streak on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin smashed past the $100,000 mark, and the Nasdaq climbed to 20,000. To me, it seems that value stocks have been left in the dust, and investors chasing bigger
Almost $10 billion has poured into Bitcoin ETFs since the US election, pushing Bitcoin past the $100,000 mark for the first time. The momentum is crazy, with Bitcoin posting its best winning streak since 2021. With investors pouring in, knowing the risks are more important than ever. Bitcoin’s
The latest data is hinting that our economy is cooling, pointing to a slowdown that could influence the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
There's a LOT to unpack. Let's start off with the labor market. Jobless claims have inched up, signaling a gradual cooling. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 232,000 for the week ending August 17. While this increase might seem minor, it’s part of a broader trend of a softening labor market.
But before you start worrying, I should also note that layoffs are historically low right now. Companies are mostly scaling back on hiring rather than cutting jobs outright.
Meanwhile, business activity is slowing, even though the economy continues to grow! The S&P Global Composite PMI dropped slightly to 54.1 in August from 54.3 in July.
Does this signal trouble? Not necessarily—anything above 50 still shows growth. However, firms are finding it harder to increase prices as consumers begin pushing back, which is contributing to slower inflation.
In the housing market, we're seeing a rebound. Existing home sales rose 1.3% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units (beating expectations).
That said, home resales are still down 2.5% compared to a year ago. The median home price jumped 4.2% to $422,600, with inventory levels rising slightly by 0.8% to 1.33 million units.
With all this data in mind, it’s no wonder that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting. But with the economy showing signs of slowing down, is a cautious rate cut the best move? The Fed might do a 25-basis-point cut to keep the economy on track.
All in all, the U.S. economy is cooling. Jobless claims are up slightly, business activity is slowing, and the housing market is showing mixed signals. All these factors could point to an interest rate cut by the Fed.