What to Expect: Apple and Microsoft's Earnings This Week

If you’re like me, you’ve probably checked your stock app more times than you’d like to admit. Well, brace yourself for another round of notifications because Apple and Microsoft are set to report their earnings this week.

In this post, I'm going to dive into what investors should expect from Apple and Microsoft’s earnings reports, why these results matter, and what they mean for the broader market.

Apple’s Drivers of Growth

Apple’s earnings report on August 1st are going to shake markets. The most attention will likely focus on a few key areas: AI developments in iPhone, gross margins, and service revenue (aka subscription) growth. Future iPhone sales are crucial, and AI enhancements to Siri and other features could spur more sales down the road.

Gross margins are expected to continue their upward trajectory, thanks to Apple's in-house supply chain and its high-margin services segment. The services segment, which makes up about 1/4th Apple's total revenues, is growing fast. This includes revenue from the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and other subscription services.

Apple's 5-year average annual service revenue growth is 15.82% 👀

Microsoft’s Earnings Expectations

Microsoft’s upcoming earnings report on July 30th will likely focus on the performance of its cloud services, particularly Azure. Despite a slower customer base growth compared to competitors Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud Platform (GCP), Microsoft Azure has expanded its market share by 14.2% from 2023. In contrast, AWS and GCP grew by 24.6% and 23.2%.

Azure's growth trailed behind Google and Amazon, which are eating up market share

Another interesting metric of Microsoft is their Office 365 product, that continues to benefit their margins and profits. The Office 365 subscriber base has had an average annual growth of 33.78% over the past ten years. It's a pretty remarkable figure that will support the network effect Microsoft has over it's other SAAS competitors.

Shift to Small Caps: Last week was a game changer for markets. We saw a huge swing away from big tech to small caps, driven by expectations of lower interest rates in September.

CAPEX Spending on AI: Investors could get concerned about the tangible returns on massive capital expenditures (CAPEX) in artificial intelligence (AI). While the spending to build infrastructure around AI is useful, the immediate return on these investments could be uncertain.

How do you think investors will react to these company reports this week?

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