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Did you know that 56% of Wisconsin’s agricultural exports could be impacted by tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and China?
Wisconsin now represents the 11th largest exporter of agricultural products in the U.S., up from 13th in 2023 (WI DATCP).
In 2024, Wisconsin’s agricultural exports reached $3.97 billion, with Canada, Mexico, and China accounting for the majority of sales ($2.22 billion). However, potential retaliatory tariffs from these trade partners could put more than half of our exports at risk.
The big question: How will Wisconsin farms be affected? This article breaks down what’s at stake and how it could reshape Wisconsin’s agricultural economy.
What Exports are at risk?
Wisconsin is known as the Dairy State, and in 2024, its dairy exports reflected that reputation—rising by 24%. Meanwhile, exports of prepared fruits and vegetables, including cranberries and sweet corn, saw a 17% increase (IABC Export Highlights).
If a trade war occurs, these fast-growing exports could struggle to remain competitive in the global market. Higher tariffs may lead to decreased demand, forcing Wisconsin producers to either lower prices, absorb higher costs, or scale back production—putting further strain on an already volatile industry.
How Much of Wisconsin’s Agriculture Is at Risk?
Wisconsin’s total agricultural economy is valued at $104.8 billion (WI Ag Statistics). While exports only make up 3.7% of Wisconsin’s total agricultural economy, for farm businesses with small margins, this 3.7% can be the difference between profit and loss.
Employment impact (WI DATCP):
- Wisconsin agriculture accounts for 9.5% of the state’s jobs.
- On-farm activity: 143,690 jobs.
- Processing & supply chain: 298,400 jobs
The consequences of new tariffs would extend far beyond farmers—processing plants, truck drivers, and both rural and urban economies would all feel the ripple effects.
How Tariffs Could Reshape Agriculture
Tariffs cause a chain reaction to business and consumers:
Retaliatory Tariffs → Higher Costs → Lower Margins → Cost-Cutting Measures
Retaliatory tariffs would make Wisconsin exports more expensive for foreign buyers, making it harder to compete with suppliers around the world. With lower demand, farmers would either cut prices to stay competitive or lose sales altogether.
How will farmers adapt?
One way farms can offset revenue loss is by reducing hired labor. Since farm labor and related activities makes up nearly 10% of Wisconsin’s workforce, a reduction in agricultural employment could push the state’s unemployment rate well above its current 3%.
However, cutting labor doesn’t mean the work disappears. Mechanization and automation have become increasingly common in agriculture due to a long-standing labor shortage. Investing in automation can help farms reduce reliance on hired labor, but this option is primarily available to larger farms with the capital to adopt technologies like automated milking systems, self-driving tractors, and other robotics.
Smaller farms, lacking the financial resources for automation, have fewer cost-saving options. Those unable to afford labor or mechanization may be forced to scale back operations by reducing livestock herds or planting fewer acres.
More Farm Consolidation Ahead?
Wisconsin loses hundreds—and in some years, thousands—of small farms annually, as many struggle to compete with larger operations. A trade war could accelerate this trend, forcing more small farms out of business while pushing the industry toward increased mechanization.
Farm consolidation has been underway for decades, but rising costs and labor challenges may drive the shift faster than expected, reshaping Wisconsin’s agricultural landscape for years to come.
What’s Next for Wisconsin Farmers?
As Wisconsin farmers navigate this uncertain future, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With rising costs, shrinking profit margins, and increased pressure to modernize, many may be forced to make difficult decisions—whether that means investing in automation, downsizing operations, or consolidating with larger farms.
The coming years will shape Wisconsin’s agricultural landscape for decades to come.